W5 - Uncertainty Matrix

• Content or Skills Based Learning: this axis is looking at whether learning will be more content or skills based in the future. In my context, this is important based on the fact that it directly effects how teachers would design their curriculum and what would be assessed in the classroom. Will the society of the future demand more skills-based learning so that the students going out into the job force are more directly prepared for their work/place in society? Or will the need for content-based education continue and perhaps grow stronger to ensure graduates have the knowledge to master certain skills later on in their careers?

• Standardised or Individual Assessment: this axis looks at whether the skills or knowledge will be assessed using a standardised system, as many school have today - or with a more individualised approach to suit each learner's needs. One of the more common discussions among secondary teachers is if the standards of NCEA are beneficial to our students. Of course there are pros and cons, but at the end of the day, we wonder if a national standard will inevitably leave students out and leave them at a disadvantage in their adult lives. Will we continue to try and "fit" all students into this standard? Or will there be a breaking point (or perhaps an innovation) that tips the tables and makes assessment more individualised? Will all students eventually have an IEP that can be analysed against the curriculum and assessment set accordingly?

W5 - Identifying Trends

Trends:

• Online and hybrid/blended learning are becoming more mainstream
• Technology costs dropping and students bringing more devices
• Globalization of education; access to language instruction from natives in their own country; access to education in rural areas
• More students graduating from high school and wanting higher education – continued growth
• Employer needs are changing – more flexibility/life-long-learning needed
• Student expectations changing

Two major trends:

• Student Expectations - students are expecting to be able to use modern technologies such as individual devices and cloud computing. They also expect to be able to utilise the wealth of information available on the internet.
• This is important because if we want our students to be life-long learners, we need to be a part of their reality and guide them in using these technologies effectively, as well as give them the freedom to guide their own learning.

• Globalisation - use of social medias and online learning opens up the potential for our students to be involved in a global community; sharing ideas and information as well as forming relationships.
• This is important because there is no doubt our world is becoming smaller and being able to embrace that will allow people to be more successful and live more flexibly in society.

These connect to my topic in particular - as teachers have started using Moodle to enhance the learning of their students (and facilitate independence - i.e. not as much need for the teacher for things like hand-outs, learning tools, etc), students have quickly adopted it and have begun asking (or demanding in some cases) that all their teachers utilise it.

Further, as NZ is a very globalized nation with a high percentage of citizens who travel, the ability to connect online globally will allow students to make connections and open up life opportunities they wouldn't otherwise have had.

Additional Source Websites to the Horizon Report:

https://www.rit.edu/provost/sites/rit.edu.provost/files/future_of_teaching_and_learning_reportv13.pdfhttp://www.mbaworld.com/~/media/Files/Events/Kjaer%20Global%20MBA%20Trends%20Poster.ashx

W5 - Decision-Making Simulation

The scenario I am looking at is called “A Vibrant Learning Grid” from the Knowledge Works resources “Learning in 2025.” I am looking through the lens of a lead learning agent in a medium-sized rural community. The learning environment is no longer characterized by a local school, though the school buildings still exist for learning purposes.

In this scenario, learning is much more flexible and community based, with students enjoying individualised programs to suit their needs. The drivers of change here would have been a need for more individualised and flexible curriculums to prepare students for an evolving job market, as well as a need to move away from standardised learning where “one size fits all” and toward a more realistic and apprentice style approach.

Source Website: http://knowledgeworks.org/learning-in-2025

List of recommended decisions:

• Design initiatives in the community where students from low-income or at-risk homes (where the parents may not be able to be as directly involved in their child’s education) so that all children are still able to take advantage of the best possible resources and teachers/motivators.
• Involve a variety of educators (“learning agents”) as well as community members in the planning and organisation of the community’s educational goals and values.
• Establish a team of people to research and keep abreast to the evolving job market so as to inform the learning agents and best prepare the children in our community for their futures
• Ensure that children in the community are able to both virtually and physically reach outside of the rural community and into the wider community (nationally and internationally).
• Develop a plan where students are still receiving a well-rounded education amongst their more individualised learning.

My two most important strategic decisions:

• Design initiatives in the community where students from low-income or at-risk homes (where the parents may not be able to be as directly involved in their child’s education) so that all children are still able to take advantage of the best possible resources and teachers/motivators.
• Ensure that children in the community are able to both virtually and physically reach outside of the rural community and into the wider community (nationally and internationally).

I chose these because the first decision focuses on one of the major worries in this scenario – that education will not be available equally to all students. The second decision would be integral as this scenario’s education system is very community-based which could end up limiting students’ vision of where their future could lead.

Transferability of my recommended decisions for the scenarios alternatives:

Some of these decisions, such as the development of teams within the community, would not translate to the “provider” scenarios, but would be even more integral in the “Learners Forage for Resources” scenario (though here, they would be more difficult to implement). I think that in all scenarios, I would make it a priority to make sure that education is equitable so that children born into low-income or at-risk circumstances would still have every chance and the support to take charge of their life and education.

W4 - Scenario Planning; To Boldy Go Where No One Has Gone Before!

I think that, based on the Shell scenario planning and DHL's proposals, it seems that scenario planning is something that every organisation would benefit from doing at least once. I think the advantages are obvious: that your business (and most importantly, the people involved) are prepared for multiple futures, which gives the organisation more confidence and flexibility in moving forward. 

The disadvantages are that it may be difficult for the people involved to open up enough in order to benefit from the process of scenario planning (or change a plan already in place). Further, if people end up getting attached to (or hopeful for) one of the scenarios in particular, the organisation might inadvertently plan for that future, narrowing their planning even further. 

I think scenario planning, or some form of it, should be deemed crucial for all levels of education - especially nowadays, when technology is evolving so quickly. Perhaps if we embraced more of the successful practices that businesses utilise, education would be more flexible as a professional organisation.

I keep hearing people talk the need for a revolution in education, and I couldn't agree more - but I think it is frightening to plan any revolution when you don't know what the future might bring. Will there be unrest and disorganisation, as there often is after a revolution? If we could plan for multiple futures - envisioning where we want education to go (and where we fear it is heading) with an open mind and consider all the factors in our "arena" that might affect those futures - we could move forward more confidently and more unified as educational professionals.

I hope to continue to gain knowledge and understanding about scenario planning and specifically, how it relates to education. I would also be interested in any scenario planning that has been done for education in the past. Overall, I want to explore how scenario planning could relate to my context (Moodle and independent learning) and use it as part of the "lense" of change for my assignments.

W4 - Important Skills for Scenario Planning

In his video on scenario planning, Oliver Freeman states that the three most important skills for scenario planners are first, the ability to assimilate/synthesise a variety of input on the issues or influences affecting an organisation. Second, they need to have the ability to "suspend disbelief" and be open minded when it comes to imagining futures. Third, they need to be able to see the importance of the "experiential learning" and how the process of scenario planning is just as, if not more important than the outcome of the plan.

L. Marines and K. Newcombe state that scenarios should be as objective as possible and "scenario planners should be alert for their own biases and emotional predilections."

Though I feel I still have much to learn and understand about scenario planning, if I had to sum up the three most important skills for scenario planners, I would choose these:

1. Open-mindedness and ability to be objective when looking at possible futures

2. Appreciation of the journey of scenario planning being more important than the destination

3. Ability to include viewpoints from many different players, including those outside the organisation

I can see how scenario planning would be a challenging endeavour for some, as it takes on a very artistic approach. As a musician and music teacher, I appreciate anything artistic or creative/imaginative, and think that this type of approach mirrors our humanity much more realistically. Some people are very afraid of the unpredictable and so an approach that allows them to predict and give them a seeming sense of control would be more attractive than SP, which would force them to accept the inherent unpredictability of our world.

Sources: 

Freeman, O. (2009). Scenario planning. Retrieved from http://www.business21c.com.au/channels/strategytube/posts/2009/09/scenario-planning

Marines, L. & Newcombe, K. (2009). Managing uncertainty through strategic thinking. FMI Quarterly, (1), 62-71

W4 - "Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?"

My first response to this statement is, well, that no one can truly predict the future. However, that doesn't mean that we stop trying to improve our society through a variety of types of planning. 

In learning about scenario planning, it seems that the purpose isn't to predict anything, but instead to open our minds to possible futures and go from there. The simple act of opening our minds in this way will make us better prepared for the reality of an uncertain future.

Oliver Freeman describes SP as "engaging with the uncertainty of the future" and "thinking the unthinkable." Therefore, a person wanting to predict the future in the first place is never going to be satisfied with scenario planning. 

The point is to change your way of thinking away from predicting the future (which is impossible anyway) and begin embracing the uncertainty in order to move forward more flexibly and with a more comprehensive view of your own context/organisation.

Freeman, O. (2009). Scenario planning. Retrieved from http://www.business21c.com.au/channels/strategytube/posts/2009/09/scenario-planning

W4 - Reflection

This has been a busy week!

My NCEA music students just finished their performance assessment concerts, which meant two 15 hour school days for me, plus lots of extra rehearsal time with nervous teenagers.

I am just now catching up with the second session of SP4Ed and feeling a little behind. The timing of the activities also seems to be on the short side - it takes me quite a lot longer than just a few minutes to complete each activity (as well as do the readings and watch the videos, etc).

At the moment, balancing the large amount of reading as well as the activities is proving a bit stressful, but I am working through it and trying to find a better schedule for myself to be able to work through it all (and understand what I am doing). Hopefully I will be able to get caught up this weekend and be back on track!

I am taking notes in my Google Drive (what did I ever do without it?) and looking forward to some future "ah hah!" moments where all the scenario planning, change and adoption models, etc will all start to connect for me.

Hope everyone is having a great weekend so far!
Sarah